The Source Magazine Online

...News from the depth, rooted in time

		Search Fo r
		Search Fo r

HOME

ARCHIVES

SUBSCRIPTION

ADVERT RATES

ABOUT US

APRIL 23, 2007 VOL. 21. NO 2

And the Winner Is...

**President Olusegun Obasanjo**

Despite the political in-roads made by the Action Congress and the determination of Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People’s Party, the People’s Democratic Party still appears on course to win this week’s Nigerian presidential election, at first ballot
By Tony Egbulefu, Abuja
Just one candidate would emerge from the crowded race of 24. It is thus a zero-sum game, one in which a winner takes all. Some of the candidates have been burning the tracks since the last five months, laundered and readied from the soap box. This is, however, not so for Christopher Pere Ajuwa, the Alliance for Democracy (AD) candidate, who stumbled into the race a few days ago, after the death of the party’s former candidate, the late Adebayo Adefarati.
Whether Ajuwa has even had time to campaign, or his AD organised enough to stage a single presidential rally is anybody’s guess. Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of the Progressive Peoples Party (PPA) and Lawrence Famakinde Adedoyin of APS, though in the race, with only a provisional clearance from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which said it would drag them to the Electoral Tribunal after the election.
Beyond a verbal expression of this intent, the national electoral body indicated this much in its website, with a fire-red indication on the remark column against both candidates. Kalu is indicted for corruption by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commision (EFCC) and by the Ignatius Ayua administrative panel for allegedly stealing over N50 billion from the Abia State purse. A case pending in court against him has a total of a 100-count charge. Adedoyin was said to have been proven to be an ex-convict in the United States of America (USA).
As at last Thursday, the Action Congress (AC) and its candidate, Vice President Atiku Abubakar are missing in the race. The fate of the party and the vice president at the moment, lies with the Supreme Court, which would make a final and decisive pronouncement on whether or not the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, by reason of Atiku’s indictment by the Bayo Ojo- led administrative panel of last year effectively barred the vice president from aspiring to the office of the Nigerian presidency as stipulated in section 137(1)(i) of the constitution, but in the meantime, it is a race of 24 contestants. And going by INEC’s guidelines, the start-off shot would crack by 8a.m this Saturday, April 21.
It is the Nigerian presidential election, which would herald a civilian-to-civilian handover, an unknown experience in the country’s 47years of nationhood. And barring any 11th hour inclusion of the AC and Vice President Atiku Abubakar in the Saturday presidential election, the contest, just as it were in 2003, would have to be a straight one between the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP). Despite the fact that 30 political parties were part of the political process in 2003, they were too feeble, individually and collectively, to mount a meaningful electoral challenge to the PDP. The ANPP, which then was the strongest opposition party, controlled nine States and AD six, against the PDP that controlled 21 States. By the time the 2003 elections were over, AD lost five of its States to the PDP, while the ANPP lost two. President Olusegun Obasanjo also routed Major-General Muhammadu Buhari of the ANPP, his major challenger, at the polls. With this, the PDP retained the presidency and also increased its haul of states to a staggering 28 out of 36 in the federation. This time, there are 50 political parties. Twenty four are contesting the presidency for now. AC may likely swell the numbers to 25. If this happens, it would have to be a triangular battle among the big three: PDP, AC and ANPP.
Significantly, the complexion of events has changed elaborately with the 2007 presidential election. Quite unlike in the 2003 presidential contest, which President Obasanjo and his running mate then, Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the ruling PDP clearly stood as easy winners, Saturday’s presidential election smacks more of a cliff-hanger. This drastic change of course of events hinge largely on the following factors:
*The birth of AC
*The ambition of the vice president
*The receded team spirit among PDP bigwigs.
*A livelier opposition
*A minimised chance of electoral fraud
*A more visible apathy against the PDP.
The birth of AC last year sign- posted the emergence of a virile party with a strong sense of opposition politics. Before then, the polity was evidently drifting towards a one- party State. The AC came forth with a vast array of frustrated politicians in the PDP, many of whom were either expelled by the party or elbowed out in the party’s revalidation of members exercise of last year. In this cast are Audu Ogbeh, PDP’s former national chairman, Vice President Atiku, who was ambushed from all corners in the party, Lawal Kaita, former PDP member of board of trustees, Ghali Umar Na’Abba, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Abubakar Rimi, Dubem Onyia and Solomon Lar, another former national chairman of the PDP.
A good component of the former AD also dissolved into the AC, populating the party with notable politicians such as Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Lagos , Segun Osoba, former governor of Ogun State , Dipo Dina, the AC gubernatorial candidate in Ogun State and Bisi Akande, former Osun State governor and national chairman of AC. Of note is that in Lagos and Ogun, almost the entire leadership machinery of the old AD and the elective office holders in the party, migrated to the AC, giving the party a strong fortification in the two states. A semblance of this was also witnessed in Ekiti State . In Edo State , the party attracted Adams Oshiomhole, former president of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), while Governor Boni Haruna of Adamawa State last week decamped from the PDP to the AC.
More than anything else, the attrition between the president and his deputy, in which more Nigerians seem to have sympathy for the vice president, boosted the peoples’ goodwill and fortune of the AC. Besides this is the manifest frustration of Nigerians with the PDP government of the past eight years. As such, the coming of AC as virile opposition party and allegedly a better alternative to the PDP, hugely vitiated the electoral appeal of the ruling party. The AC to a good measure,also head-hunted PDP’s human capital at both the leadership and followership levels.
With a well-oiled propaganda machinery, the ambition of the vice president on the platform of the AC has since 2003, and December last year, when he formally decamped from the PDP and got presidential nomination of the AC, proved a handful for the ruling PDP. This derives from the fact that beside the enormous power of the vice president and the AC propaganda outfit, Atiku is presently one of the politicians of consequence in the country at the moment and reaps heavily from the goodwill that traditionally flows from Nigerians to a perceived David in any David versus Goliath showdown, as projected in Atiku and Obasanjo’s four- year old attrition. As such, Nigerians who today spurn the Umaru Yar’Adua and Governor Goodluck Jonathan candidacy of the PDP hardly do so on the basis of any ill-will the PDP presidential candidate and his running mate has personally incurred, but on sentiments against the president and the party which he leads that produced them.
Another major factor that has contributed immensely to cast Saturday’s presidential election as an open-ended one, is the diminished party and team spirit among the PDP bigwigs.
The PDP is going into the presidential election with a visibly un-subdued discontent from its cast of former presidential candidates, who were abruptly cast aside at the convention ground at Eagle Square by the party hierarchy in favour of Yar’Adua who evidently was a less than keen aspirant. The cream of the PDP governors who were in the race but made to stand down for Yar’Adua have not been enthusiastic with their support for the PDP candidate. The party as it were, has also done very little to mollify them, not even a refund of part of their campaign expenditure has been contemplated. The affected Governors are Victor Attah (Akwa Ibom) Donald Duke (Cross Rivers), Peter Odili (Rivers), Sam Egwu (Ebonyi), Achike Udenwa, (Imo), Adamu Abdullahi, (Nasarawa), Saminu Turaki, (Jigawa) and Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna). Indications are that they have at best opted to watch their party and its presidential flagbearers slug out the presidential contest with other contenders from the sideline. While they are not contributing funds to the campaign coffers, they shun the PDP campaign train, unless when it stops in their respective states. They have also refused to issue words in favour of their party’s candidates and the party’s quest to retain power, even when they have the opportunity to say so.
A few days ago, Professor Jerry Gana, one of the disappointed presidential aspirants of the PDP, who though served the Obasanjo government since inception in 1999, ventilated his frustration over the presidential primaries, when he declared that the PDP and the President Obasanjo government have failed Nigerians. Aside the PDP governors who were presidential aspirants, the larger cast of PDP governors have also not been keen with their support for the party’s presidential bid. And the reading is that there indeed, may be a gang-up of the PDP governors to sabotage Yar’Adua and Goodluck. While the possibility of this development looms large, the reason for it is not too difficult to ferret out. While the president has shown that Yar’Adua was one PDP governor after his heart, with parsimony and probity, the president sees all others as corrupt. And just last week at the Maiduguri campaign rally of the party, the president reiterated that the EFCC would hunt all corrupt governors down after they hand over power by May 29.
This disdain from the president and his favoritism to Yar’Adua and Goodluck, combines with the denial of the freedom to choose their successors by the party leadership and the president.
In Edo State, for instance, Governor lucky Igbinedion is reasonably believed to be working against the success of his party. He has been clearly fingered to be working in support of Oshiomhole, the AC gubernatorial candidature, against the PDP candidate, Senator Oserhemen Osunbor. It is believed that Igbinedion would, indeed, deliver the State to the AC in the gubernatorial election.The Igbinedion action flows from his ego clash with Tony Anenih, chairman, PDP Board of Trustees,who carries a huge political weight in the state;and the president’s support for the latter on account of issues of corruption and non-performance dogging Igbinedion’s path. How effectively Igbinedion can drown the political might of Anenih to deliver Edo votes to the AC, however, seems a daunting task, moreso when Samuel Ogbemudia, another prominent political father-figure in the state is also firing from the same side with Anenih.
Governor Jolly Nyame of Taraba State and Abdulkadir Kure of Niger State are also believed to be working to the disadvantage of the PDP, both at the governorship and the presidential elections, due to their frustrations by the president and the national secretariat of the PDP to choose their successor.
Also,while Governor George Akume of Benue State, is believed to be working assiduously to deliver the governorship to his choice candidate of the PDP, Gabriel Suswam, his heart for the presidential is believed to lie with the AC. Since 1999, when Akume came to power in the state, he has been at loggerheads with the president, resulting in Obasanjo’s refusal to honour the state with a state visit, until last month which though coincided with the PDP presidential rally in ths state.
Two other PDP governors, who will evidently work against their estranged party in the presidential election , as against what it was in 2003, are Governors Ayodele Fayose of Ekiti and Joshua Dariye of Plateau, both of whom are currently at large and deposed.Fayose has in no uncertain terms urged his supporters to vote against the PDP in Ekiti.He pointedly singled out AC as the alternative. In Plateau, Dariye’s supporters have since last year dumped the PDP for the AC.The same goes with Governor Orji Kalu of Abia State.Besides championing the cause of his PPA, Kalu drew the bulk of the state’s legislators , Senators Uche Chukwumerije, Chris Adighije and the entire machinery of the state government to his new party ,where he is contesting the presidency.
In Enugu,while Governor Chimaroke Nnamani is committed to delivering the governorship to the PDP, and install Sullivan Chime as his successor, he is obviously not too keen about the fate of the PDP at the presidential election.The Nnamani-Obasanjo relationship went frosty since early last year and since then the EFCC has been after him.He has been dragged also to the Code of Conduct Bureau for trial.
Besides the governors, many PDP national legislators who lost the party’s ticket for the National Assembly election, in circumstances that are not satisfactory to them , have either dumped the party to rival parties, or had tactically remained in the PDP to inflict sabotage on it during the elections. A few days ago, the Senate President, Ken Nnamani, regretted that the PDP, would have to lose the cream of its senators in the big turnover the party would record in the Senate after this Saturday’s election. In Imo State, where the tussle for the PDP ticket had raged since January between Charles Ugwuh and Senator Ifeanyi Araraume ,up to the Supreme Court, there is little doubt that Araraume’s supporters would sabotage the PDP at the polls, particularly now that the party leadership has expelled Araraume for taking the party to court.
PDP supporters and the party leadership are, however, not un- mindful of the threat posed by the AC, as well as that posed by internal discontent. This late last month prompted a brainstorming session in Le Meridian Hotel, Abuja, by mobilisers in the party. They met as stakeholders, under the auspices of “National Coalition for NGO/Civil Society Organisation for Yar’Adua and Goodluck”.
Prince (Otunba) Dayo, who presided over the occasion, told TheSource that the party was afraid that it would not be an easy ride at the polls, this time around.
He acknowledged that the threat posed by the AC was real, but that the worse of all the threats was the one posed by its aggrieved members, especially those of them who had bottled up their anger, pretending to be working for the party and refusing to decamp. Dayo said that the PDP members were embarking on the last ditch reconciliatory effort in order to stave off internal sabotage and ensure that Yar’Adua and Goodluck clinch victory at the first ballot.
The complexion of the Saturday election would equally be affected by the high possibility of minimised chances of electoral fraud, which many believe was not the case with the 2003 election. Indeed, many particularly the opposition, believe that there was an unbridled rigging in the 2003 elections, which they say, gave the PDP a leverage. Opinion leaders such as Gani Fawehinmi, Yakubu Gowon and even contestants such as Kalu and Buhari after an assessment of the anti-rigging mechanisms which INEC has put in place, expressed confidence in the national electoral body’s ability to conduct an election that is more credible than that of 2003. If this happens, it would be the strength and acceptability of the parties and their candidates that would to a large extent determine which party and candidate carries the day. Again, the PDP’s clean sweep of the presidential poll in 2003 would most likely diminish in this Saturday’s polls as a result of a more pronounced apathy against the party and the Federal Government it controls, in the last few years.
Significantly the voting pattern for Saturday’s presidential election would be influenced by such traditional factors as strength of parties, personality of the candidates, role and influence of power brokers and voters’ sentiments. A closer look shows that PDP would be the highest beneficiary from the fortune of a big, strong and well- rooted party, followed by the AC and the ANPP. Buhari would have his greatest favours from character sketch, followed by Atiku (if he runs), then Yar’Adua.
Pat Utomi of ACD and Chris Okotie of FRESH, would also benefit from their good public perception, but this would be vastly diminished by the huge loss the duo would suffer as a result of the fringe positions of their platforms. Again, the PDP would be the highest beneficiary from the role and influence of power brokers. PDP, is no doubt the biggest party among the lot and it has the highest agglomeration of father-figures and those who wield influence in the country. AC comes a distant second in this criteria, then the ANPP.
However,PDP is evidently going to suffer the biggest loss on the basis of voters’ sentiment. The party would most likely experience protest votes against it in some states, localities and constituencies as a result of the pronounced acrimony against the party. The ANPP would trail the PDP in this regard.AC would only share in this whenever it finds itself within the many strongholds of the PDP.
However, despite its problems and challenges, the PDP still looks good and set to clinch victory at the first ballot this Saturday, whether or not the vice president runs. This outright victory is also with regards to the possibility of an alliance against the party as being championed by Buhari. Nigerian political history is replete with failed political alliances, most of which are formed out of frustration and desperation. The alliance being canvassed by Buhari against the PDP fits into this mould; worse still, it is coming behind time.
The strength and penetration of the PDP and the powers behind the party no doubt are potent enough to propel the party to victory at the first ballot. As events stand, the party would secure outright leadership in about 18 States of the federation and certainly secure the constitutional one-third of the total numbers of votes cast in the remaining 18 States. This altogether would arm the PDP with more than the required stipulation of one-third votes cast in 30 States of the federation.
In this regard, Yar’Adua by Saturday, is most likely to sweep Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River , Rivers, Anambra, Kaduna , Jigawa , Niger , Oyo, Kwara, Kogi, Bauchi, Gombe, Ogun, Osun, Ebonyi, Kebbi and Katsina States.
The AC candidate is likely to take Kano , Lagos , Edo , Plateau and Adamawa. But it is even unlikely that AC would beat especially the PDP hands down in these non-PDP strongholds. The ANPP would likely lead in Borno, Zamfara, and would Yobe and would likely secure the required one-third of the total votes cast in eight more states. The number of votes secured by any of the three parties can change the entire complexion of the election outcome. Significantly, AC and the PDP are in the lead in the high voter density States such as Kano , Kaduna and Lagos. Sokoto, though a high density area may likely go to Attahiru Bafarawa, the incumbent governor, who is contesting the presidency on the platform of his DPP.
Another development that would significantly alter the course of events especially for the PDP is if in an event,of Atiku’s final disqualification by the Supreme Court, the AC in frustration directs its supporters to cast their votes for the ANPP. Though the States the two parties combined may get is not likely to aggregate up to that of the PDP, the ANPP total vote cast with such a development, may likely outstrip that of the PDP; and the eventual winner of the presidential election may have to be resolved constitutionally.