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MARCH 12, 2007 VOL. 20. NO 22

A Lopsided Voting Pattern

**Professor Maurice Iwu**

The Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) voters’ population figures indicate that the nation lies at the mercy of the North, in deciding who becomes the next president
By Innocent Chukwu
To many political pundits, the Aso Rock Villa Presidential seat, given the current trend of politicking in the country, is seemingly the exclusive preserve of contenders of Northern extraction. This argument may have stemmed from a sneak preview of the profile of the presidential flag-bearers, especially those of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP), the Action Congress (AC), Fresh Party, African Democratic Party (ADP) and the Progressive People’s Alliance (PPA).
Since there are no South west presidential contender, it has often been contended that the political clout, carriage or popularity of aspirants from both the South east and South south are no match to those of their northern counterparts. Also, not a few analysts posit that the towering image (positive or negative) and rich curriculum vitae (CV) of personalities like Vice President Atiku Abubakar who has been in the mainstream of Nigeria’s politics since 1978, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) who was once a military head of state and Musa Yar’Adua, all representing the three major parties, would easily eclipse any other from the South south on South east in terms of politicking.
Even, the intensity with which the three leading contenders flagged off their campaign – the grandeur, pageantry, even executive paraphernalia and articulate political machineries – all lend credence to the popular belief that the north is, indeed, in absolute possession of all the aces that decide who Nigeria’s next president will be.
Yet, among these relatively popular northerner candidates, many observers insist that the entire nation reserve the right to elect, even from “unpopular” aspirants of the South east and South south extraction, the person who will steer the country’s affairs over the next four years. This obligation, many say, is infact, the beauty of democracy.
But unfortunately, the recent release by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), of the population index of voters who will elect the country’s next president, may have frustrated the desire of many Nigerians to exercise the otherwise enthusiastic civic duty.
Earlier, the commission had released the total number of registrants who are eligible to cast votes in the April 2007 elections; INEC put the figure at above 61 million. But what is really upsetting the apple carts is the Thursday, February 15 release of a state- by – state breakdown of the voters population by the electoral body.
Based on the commission’s voters data, the North (including Abuja) garnered about 65 per cent of the total number of registered voters, with 35 million, The South record about 26.6 million registrants, about 35 per cent of the entire registered voters.
The INEC breakdown shows that Kano and Kaduna voters alone out-number those of the South eastern states, while the member of those who registered in the North west geo-political zone is larger than those of the South east and South south voters combined.
The North west states of Kano (4,072,597), Kaduna (3,374,245), Katsina (2,589,047), Jigewa (1,722,352), Kebbi (1,345,435), Sokoto and Zamfara, at 1,409,337 and 1,330,573 respectively, brought its total haul to 15,843,586 voters.
Similarly, the South west region has about 10.9 million voters, with Lagos State on top of the region’s list with 4,204,000 voters. The North east followed with 9,299,443, North central 9,002,682, leaving South south whose figures surpassed those of the South east emerged second to the last on the list with 9,060,868 registered voters, leaving the South east with dismal figure of 6,714,509. The Federal Capital Territory, Abuja recorded about 756,862 voters.
Having studied the INEC’s release critically many critics alleged that the circumstances that surrounded both the recently concluded population census where the North got figures far above those of the South, and the voters registration figures, portend danger to the polity. They reason that it is suspicious for the North to always remain ahead of the South when it comes to population figures, moreso when it is through such figures that the proverbial national cake is divided.
Reacting critically to the fore-going, some analysts have faulted this argument, contending that while in the actual sense the North may not be more populous than the South, the voters registration result, however, may not be contentious.
The North, they contend, is more cohesive than any other part of the country, especially when it comes to political issues. These pundits argue that northernes are more politically conscious than their Southern counterparts and that this enables them to plan ahead of time so that nothing in the political arena takes them by surprise.
This, the observers say, propels them to go out en masse to register for elections, vote for their choice candidates and also participate fully during census periods. Little wonder, they insist, the population of the North often soars higher than that of the South in any given census exercise.
According to the analysts, except in the South west, where there is a slight paradigm shift in attitude towards political issues, the South east has little, or atimes no regard for political discourse. The lukewarmness with which they participate in such national issues as voting during elections, electioneering campaigns, and voters registration and census exercises attest to the fact that they seldomly take national issues very serious.
This, many believe, accounts for why the South east successively maintained the bottom position in both the census exercise and the voters population statistics. For example, one analyst said that it is a common factor in the South east that in a family of nine or 10, only one or two persons might go out to register for elections or to be counted.
However, for Joe Igbokwe, a political analyst, the above arguments do not hold much water. For Igbokwe, who insisted that, “I don’t want to comment on this matter (voters registration figures),” the Igbo or South easterners have strongly rejected both the census figures and the voters population figures.
Contesting the figures though, Igbokwe stated that the “figures do not matter,” because according to him, “any document that tells lies against itself is a fraud. The census itself is a fraud, the voters registration is a fraud too. The South east has rejected it.”
Instructively, Igbokwe is not alone in the train of those who have consistently questioned the voters registration results. Some are asking why the number of voters in just Kaduna and Kano can possibly outstrip those of the entire South east. Others argue that it is the first step in election malpractice come April 2007. These observers accuse INEC of deliberately distributing the data capture machines in a lopsided manner, thereby making the registration materials more available in some states than others.
Other commentators also argue that the flaws allegedly recorded in the Maurice Iwu-led INEC voters statistics is traceable to the history of Nigeria’s electoral bodies, including the Federal Electoral Commission (FEDECO), the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and of course, INEC whose scandalous conduct of elections remains its albatross since 1999.
In their candid estimation, these analysts contend that what the electoral commission’s statistics indicates is that in the April 21 presidential election, the South eastern region will remain inconsequential given the number of registered voters in the region. Even some presidential candidates, according to them, may conveniently ignore channeling campaign resources to the region which already has two outstanding presidential candidates – All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and the PPA Dim Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu and Orji Uzor Kalu of the jostling to share their “meagre” votes.
Another contention trailing the INEC voters record is the fear that since the North west and North east registered voters out-number those of the entire South, the election’s direction might have been decided already. Proponents of this argument insist that it is absurd for contestants from the South east or South south to continue in the race seeing that they have no foothold, consequent upon the released voter statistics.
To them, the North holds all the aces and will decide who to cede the presidential throne to. This development, they argue, may also engender increased lukewarm attitude in the minds of voters who may feel that their votes may not matter much.
In order to counter this opinion and to further encourage voters to perform their civic duties during the April election, other pundits have remarked that history has proven that elections are not won based on the number of registered voters in a particular region, but on the ability of candidates to convince the electorates on their capability to manage their affairs.
They easily make reference to two previous elections where some Southern candidates won in key northern states, even on the home soil of other strong contender. In 1979 for instance, Dr. Nnamadi Azikiwe, presidential candidate of the defunct Nigerian People’s Party (NPP), polled the highest number of votes in Plateau State, a North central state in the face of many prominent Northern opponents. The same historical feat was also repeated in the 1993 presidential election when late Bashorun MKO Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), dramatically defeated his National Republican Convention (NRC) opponent, Bashir Tofa in Kano State. Tofa is an indigene of Kano.
Remarkably, inspite of these arguments and controversies generated by the voters registration records, the INEC’s helmsman, Iwu, has often reiterated the resolve of his commission to ensure a credible, free, fair, as well as crisis-free elections come April 2007, the plots of those he referred to as “saboteurs” notwithstanding.
Appraising the electronic voters registration innovation, Iwu said “it may be pertinent to point out that the recently concluded voter registration of direct capture is the single largest rural computerisation anywhere in Africa.”
Continuing, the INEC boss said: “With the system, we have made it very impossible to double-register. You can only have one finger print. It does not matter how clever you are, you can only have one finger print. We expect that when we run the ethics system, we hope the numbers will reduce because of some die-hard people who believe they can do multiple registration.”